Defra sets out plan to cap growth of England’s incineration capacity
Government analysis reveals complex interplay between infrastructure capacity, policy reforms, and regional needs as England approaches critical decisions on waste management investment
The Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) has announced significant changes to waste infrastructure planning, backed by new evidence showing England will have more incineration capacity than needed by 2035.
Published in its Residual Waste Infrastructure Capacity Note, the analysis reveals that energy recovery capacity will reach 18.8 million tonnes (Mt) by 2035, against projected municipal residual waste of 19.4Mt. When combined with other treatment methods, total residual waste capacity will hit 24.9Mt, including allowance for landfill to manage 10 per cent of municipal solid waste.
The findings have prompted Defra to implement stricter conditions for new waste incinerator approvals, requiring developers to demonstrate both heat utilisation capability and carbon capture readiness once regulations come into force, predicated on the expectation that effective carbon sequestration projects will also be operational.
"For far too long, the nation has seen its recycling rates stagnate and relied on burning household waste, rather than supporting communities to keep resources in use for longer," said Circular Economy Minister Mary Creagh. "That ends today, with clear conditions for new energy from waste plants."
Current data shows 50 operational energy recovery facilities in England with a capacity of 14.3Mt, alongside 12 facilities under construction adding 3.9Mt, and 35 consented facilities potentially contributing another 9.5Mt. This consented capacity consists "almost entirely of proposed merchant facilities that have no underlying local authority contract," according to the analysis.
Infrastructure planning challenges
The analysis highlights several critical issues in infrastructure planning. While some regions have excess operational capacity compared to local authority collected waste, others face significant shortfalls. The East Midlands and East of England particularly require alternative treatment options to landfill.
The capacity note emphasises that consented facilities should be viewed as "a pool of potential projects" rather than guaranteed developments, with financial viability dependent on securing long-term waste contracts.
Charlotte Rule, Head of Climate and Energy Policy at the Environmental Services Association (ESA), said: "The ESA's long-held view is that recovering energy and materials from waste left over after recycling is an important part of a circular economy but development of Energy-from-Waste (EfW) facilities must be carefully balanced against current and future capacity needs, which this new Residual Waste Infrastructure Capacity Note supports."
Current data shows mechanical biological treatment capacity declining from 2.0Mt in 2020 to 0.4Mt by 2035, while refuse-derived fuel exports are expected to drop from 2.4Mt to 0.5Mt over the same period.
Industry calls for wider reforms
Local authority leaders have called for more comprehensive measures beyond the new infrastructure requirements. LARAC Chair Cathy Cook said: "Whilst LARAC supports the principle behind these changes and acknowledges and supports efforts to reduce material lost to incineration and landfill where it can be recycled, more needs to be done."
Cook added: "Real change to recycling rates will only be made when systemic changes are made to influence the composition of the waste stream and local authorities are empowered to change citizen behaviour at the kerbside."
The local authority body highlighted several key areas requiring attention, including:
- Extension of Extended Producer Responsibility to non-packaging materials
- Development of repair and reuse initiatives
- Growth of end market demand for recyclables, particularly flexible plastics
- Greater empowerment of local authorities to influence citizen behaviour
Policy reform impacts
Defra's analysis reveals significant uncertainty in waste forecasting. Municipal waste is projected to increase from 45.2Mt in 2020 to 51.1Mt by 2035, even with packaging reforms in place. Without these reforms, the figure would reach 52.7Mt.
Three major policy interventions are expected to reshape the sector:
- Extended Producer Responsibility for packaging in 2025
- Simpler Recycling implementation phased between 2025-2027
- Deposit Return Scheme launching 2027
These reforms are projected to reduce annual municipal residual waste by 18 per cent by 2035 compared to 2020 levels. However, the analysis acknowledges significant uncertainty in these projections, particularly regarding non-household municipal waste capture rates. Furthermore, it is not able to reflect changes to the composition of household waste, nor the response of consumers or producers to environmental concerns.
